Russian incursions drive NATO state resource usage

Carlo Graziani argues that Russia’s escalating provocations are a sign of stress, rather than confidence:

It is certainly true that Russian incursions drive NATO state resource usage. But it is also true that after 3.5 years of full-out war, Russia is by far the more resource-constrained party in this exchange. So, if the Russians have decided to raise resource-commitment stakes now, they need a pretty strong reason, because ultimately it will cost European states less of their disposable resources to defend against incursions than it costs Russian disposable resources to commit them.

Broken record time: the reason is that the Ukrainian Oil Plan has the Kremlin scared shitless. Not only have the Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries and pipelines reduced Russian refining capacity by 17% since August, and caused their pipeline authority to warn oil producers to expect lower acceptance capacity for the forseeable future: oil revenues constitute about 30% of the Russian state budget. And from the Russian perspective, the great and fearful unknown is how fast can Ukraine grow its domestic drone industry in range, payload, and output. They are almost certainly asking themselves, if Iran could gain such comparative advantage from investment in drone development over such a short time, what can they expect from the maturing Ukrainian drone industry over the next year?

Prior to the roll-out of a major air defense upgrade—which is probably in development now—the Russians are basically helpless in the face of an effort that now seems plausibly capable of choking off up to 30% of state revenue. That’s no joke, even without going into the domestic difficulties associated with gas and heating fuel shortages. Putin would be an idiot not to be panicking now, and while he is a monster, he is not an idiot. Any change in Russian war strategy now must necessarily be read in this context. If Russia suddenly wants to put new strain on NATO, it is because of the new strain that Russia is suddenly experiencing itself. Russia would like NATO powers to help end the war on terms they find acceptable. That, in my opinion, is the real reason for these new attacks, and the reason that they are happpening now. The Ukrainians have changed the strategic outlook of this war since August. The Russians are reacting.

Source: The Ballon Juice comments